The predictive ability of six pharmacokinetic models of rocuronium developed using a single bolus: evaluation with bolus and continuous infusion regimen

Abstract

Purpose

Rocuronium concentration prediction using pharmacokinetic (PK) models would be useful for controlling rocuronium effects because neuromuscular monitoring throughout anesthesia can be difficult. This study assessed whether six different compartmental PK models developed from data obtained after bolus administration only could predict the measured plasma concentration (Cp) values of rocuronium delivered by bolus followed by continuous infusion.

Methods

Rocuronium Cp values from 19 healthy subjects who received a bolus dose followed by continuous infusion in a phase III multicenter trial in Japan were used retrospectively as evaluation datasets. Six different compartmental PK models of rocuronium were used to simulate rocuronium Cp time course values, which were compared with measured Cp values. Prediction error (PE) derivatives of median absolute PE (MDAPE), median PE (MDPE), wobble, divergence absolute PE, and divergence PE were used to assess inaccuracy, bias, intra-individual variability, and time-related trends in APE and PE values.

Results

MDAPE and MDPE values were acceptable only for the Magorian and Kleijn models. The divergence PE value for the Kleijn model was lower than −10 %/h, indicating unstable prediction over time. The Szenohradszky model had the lowest divergence PE (−2.7 %/h) and wobble (5.4 %) values with negative bias (MDPE = −25.9 %). These three models were developed using the mixed-effects modeling approach. The Magorian model showed the best PE derivatives among the models assessed.

Conclusions

A PK model developed from data obtained after single-bolus dosing can predict Cp values during bolus and continuous infusion. Thus, a mixed-effects modeling approach may be preferable in extrapolating such data.

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